US oil expected to meet demand

Crude Oil

Daily April West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil

The IEA said the U.S. would be producing a total of almost 17 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, up from 13.2 million past year, eating into OPEC's market share and moving closer to self-sufficiency. Likely, they won't like what they hear.

Last year, the IEA forecast United States shale production to grow by 1.4 million bpd by 2022 with oil prices of up to $60 a barrel and by up to 3 million barrels with oil at $80 a barrel.

That surge in prices, however, boosted U.S. production sharply, which hit a record in November 2017 at more than 10 million bpd and is expected to surpass 11 million bpd later this year.

Canada will continue to pump out more barrels from the oilsands over the next few years, but delays to pipeline approvals and uncertainty over the provision of more export capacity is undermining the next wave of development, according to the International Energy Agency.

Last year's decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to restrain output has drained the global glut that occupied much of the conversation at 2017's gathering. But ironically, a further collapse of Venezuela's oil industry could make OPEC's deliberations harder, not easier, if it ruptures the conviction of the current output reduction sharing coalition. More recently, many companies that had continued offshore drilling since then have cut back and put more dollars into onshore shale plays, which offered quicker financial payouts.

General Electric's Bake Hughes unit reported on Friday that the USA energy companies increased 1 oil rig in the week that ended in March 2. Rising global oil demand has so far absorbed the extra United States crude barrels, limiting the impact on prices. This led to a glut of oil within the U.S. and higher demand for oil sourced in other areas, like the North Sea. Barkindo said the OPEC side wanted to learn how the Americans were able to use technology, cuts costs, and still boost productivity.

Crude oil prices tested resistance near a downward sloping trend line that connects the highs in February to the highs in March and comes in near Tuesday's highs at 63.30. But that will depend, in part, on the ability of producers to get their product to market and, increasingly, that means to export terminals on the Gulf coast.

Brent Crude
Daily May Brent Crude

All this leaves OPEC (and its partnership with Russia) in a quandary.

Earlier OPEC Secretary General noted that all major oil producers in the world are fully responsible for the situation on the market.

Opec has been struggling with USA shale for nearly a decade now. "I think the oil companies would be the first to tell you that stability in the oil price is important to them", he added. Should WTI pull ahead, we may expect Opec to mull new measures to check U.S. shale and keep some measure of control over the benchmarks.

A surge in US crude production to more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) has helped the country overtake top exporter Saudi Arabia.

It is in this context of confusion that the United States needs to consider the dangers of altering a suite of energy policies that are working.

The United States is poised to overtake Russian Federation as the world's largest oil-producer within the next five years; drastically increasing production and opening new areas for energy development under President Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress. In other words, the SPR is not superfluous. The U.S. government issues its official inventory data on Wednesday.

“A large group of chemicals derived from oil and natural gas are crucial to the manufacture of many products that satisfy this rising demand, ” it added.

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