Non-OPEC production is set to rise 5.2 million bpd by 2023 to 63.3 million bpd. Despite the emergence of renewables, global energy security depends mainly on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.
For all of 2018, the EIA estimates USA crude production will average 10.7 million barrels a day.
Last year's decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to restrain output has drained the global glut that occupied much of the conversation at 2017's gathering. "Oil price recovery, however, has triggered a new wave of growth from the US", said the IEA.
As well as Trump's trade offensive, concerns over growing United States stockpiles weighed on oil futures. Trump claimed that it was a move to "protect USA industry".
Historically, during many past oil disruptions, OPEC's Arab members like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have increased exports to prevent oil prices from skyrocketing.
Oil drew support as the USA dollar fell to its lowest in more than a week against a basket of currencies on news from South Korea that North Korea was willing to hold talks with the United States on denuclearization, and would suspend nuclear tests during any discussions.
The UAE's oil minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, said at a recent industry conference, that without OPEC there would be market chaos and no shale players. "We had emerged from a severe cycle and CERAWeek gives us an opportunity to compare notes and experiences", OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told Bloomberg. But in the age of US oil abundance, OPEC's Gulf members are questioning whether this approach continues to make sense. The shale industry includes hundreds of companies, many of which must answer to public shareholders. "It does appear as if we need more evidence that the rebalance continues to really ignite a rally again". Exiting the current agreement, which cuts output by 1.8 Mbd, could create a sharp price drop. "They'll extend the cuts forever and express their anger at shale from here".
OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said Monday at the CERAWeek conference in Houston that there is a "common understanding" between oil-producing nations and USA shale producers that "we all belong to this industry", even as USA exports have eroded OPEC's market share over the past year. The local experts publish oil reports on a regular basis. For the first few years, it downplayed the shale; in 2014, with the market oversupplied, it opened the spigots, sending oil prices to below $30 a barrel in a war for market share.
Birol told CERA Week that conditions have "changed substantially" since then, as the resurgence of USA production has fast become the dominant theme in the global oil markets, with the country's output underpinned by several major shale fields, the "significance" of which can not be understated.
Others inside Opec are sounding exasperated as the resurgence in shale output could force the cartel to prolong its output cuts beyond the end of 2018.