Betting against a blue wave in 2018

Alex Wong  GettyImages

Alex Wong GettyImages

That was double the Democratic primary turnout in the last midterm. Originally (and properly) understood as bad for Democrats, who hold 26 of the 35 seats up in November (or now 26 of 36 if you add in Mississippi's special election), the landscape at first offered Republicans hopes of gaining a filibuster-proof 60 seats, particularly after Donald Trump carried ten states with Democratic senators facing voters in 2018. Even if Democrats are able to pick off a Republican seat or two (most plausible in Nevada and Arizona; not Texas), the GOP could still gain seats by beating a handful of unpopular incumbents representing red states.

Democrats lead in the other five-Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida-but only in the latter two races do the Democratic incumbents (Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Bill Nelson of Florida) have leads bigger than 5 points. The Democratic vote was up in the 15 most populous counties, but the rural vote is still overwhelmingly Republican. "This is an uphill, very tough fight for the next eight months".

Wright took 45 percent of the vote in an 11-person GOP primary for the District 6 congressional spot.

"We've got one candidate that's got nearly a million dollars available to him and I've spent $40,000 and the bulk of that has been my own money", said Wilson. "Or we could walk the walk".

A wave of Texas women candidates won or made it to runoffs in more than 50 primary races statewide amid a surge of interest in running for office among women around the country.

State legislative elections are easily overlooked, but they can carry enormous consequences for policy and politics, even on the national level.

At the top of the ticket, Ted Cruz received some 1.1 million votes in pulling 85 percent of the GOP primary electorate. The comments mirror hopes among Democrats nationwide that voters will react negatively to the the Trump presidency, and that low approval ratings for the Republican president will translate to a boost for Democratic state and local candidates.

Democratic National Committee members met last week to discuss proposed changes recommended by the Unity Reform Commission that was formed in the wake of the 2016 primary to make the nomination process more open, fair and inclusive of insurgent campaigns and their supporters.

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Republicans this week strongly opposed how Democrats intend to pay for their plan.

The bottom line: Just as Ose dropped out for the sake of his party, some Democrats running for Congress must leave the field or risk failure for their party's efforts to take over control of the House of Representatives.

"While it's possible for Democrats to win the two seats they need, it will also be an uphill battle".

Democrats have their sights on flipping three GOP-controlled congressional seats in Texas that backed Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016, including a Houston district where liberal favorite Laura Moser forced a runoff with Lizzie Pannill Fletcher. Which would leave a one-party Republican race in a district Clinton won by nearly 10 percent. Valdez and White will need a May 22 runoff to decide who wins their party's nomination - but either will be prohibitive underdogs against well-funded and popular Abbott.

Several pieces of data will tell us whether the midterms will become a wave election: Mr. Trump's job approval rating, the "right track/wrong track" polling number, consumer confidence, the state of the economy, as well as the generic congressional ballot.

In order for a candidate to directly advance, they must receive more than 50 percent of the votes.

In state elections, Gov. Kate Brown is seeking a second and final term but must first edge out Democratic challengers with little name recognition.

The answer to small tent Republican panic and division is big tent unity and determination from Democrats. "And in a state that has never elected a Latina to Congress, EMILY's List is particularly proud to congratulate Veronica Escobar and Sylvia Garcia as they both move one step closer to making history this November", said Stephanie Schriock, president of Emily's List.

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