Analysts' estimates of the possible reduction in Iranian crude supplies as a result of any new US sanctions range from as little as 200,000 bpd to as much as 1 million bpd, with most impact from 2019 as sanctions take time to be imposed.
After two months of an nearly uninterrupted increase, crude oil is set for even more volatility on a string of political events that could see it either touch US$80 or even higher by the end of June or, conversely, slump to deep lows again.
Now oil prices have turned on its head.
The biggest oil producers have formed an organization known as OPEC.
President Donald Trump will start unwinding the string today as he announced his decision on the Iran deal.
Some shortfall could be covered by increases in US shale oil output. India's crude purchases will still remain in an elevated band of $65-70 per barrel.
The United States has since then, however, expressed doubts over Iran's sincerity in implementing those curbs.
In his announcement, Trump said that the USA will reimpose the "highest level of economic sanctions" on Tehran, which could put hundreds of thousands of crude barrels at risk.More news: Xiaomi Redmi S2 launched in China: Price, specifications and more
Speaking to CNN Money, Mohammad Barkindo, the secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said extraordinary moves to limit global oil supplies would be bad for the global economy.
The United States now produces more crude oil than top exporter Saudi Arabia, and two weeks of USA inventory builds have limited the oil market's upside.
Saudi Arabia pledged on Tuesday to "work with major producers within and outside OPEC" to "mitigate the impact" of supply shortages.
By Navneet Damani Oil prices have traded firm supported by geopolitical premium, which overshadowed negative data of continuous rise in USA output.
Iran ships about 2.5 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia will also have an easier time convincing all of its partners, including Russian Federation, to extend quotas into 2019.
Most analysts believe that at least some nations will ignore the new American sanctions and continue buying Iranian crude.
But taken together with increasing tensions on trade, with large tariffs possibly coming against China, there is growing wariness among some investors. The interview was conducted before Trump said an announcement on Iran was imminent.
The British investment bank cut its 2019 production outlook for Iran from 3.91 million barrels per day to 3.74 million barrels per day.
The spike in retail fuel prices, unsurprisingly, has caused widespread resentment among consumers who understandably want the government to reduce duties so that the scorching rise in costs can be cooled. Saudi Arabia and Israel are trying aggressively to convince the President to be tough on Iran.