Oil holds near multi-year highs on Iran supply concerns

Far more riding on Trump nuclear deal decision than fate of Iran

Oil rises to US$ 70 a barrel, ahead of Trump's Tuesday decision on sanctions to Iran

Trump's only justification for scrapping this deal was Israeli intelligence, based on 15-year-old documents, that Iran had lied about its nuclear ambitions.

Importantly, any such payments can not involve US persons or the USA financial system, unless the transactions are exempt from regulation or authorized by OFAC. The deal is not "weak", Iran has not "cheated", and the agreement does not "expire".

Iran re-emerged as a major oil exporter in 2016 after global sanctions against it were lifted in return for curbs on its nuclear program, with its April exports standing above 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd).

Dan Eberhart, CEO of oilfield services company Canary LLC, drew a direct connection: "Withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal will support higher oil prices".

Indo-Iran ties have been on a upswing after Tehran sealed the nuclear deal with the global community in 2015.

Iranian officials can just surrender. Trump's abandonment of the Iran deal coincides with a cabinet reshuffle that, even by recent standards, is frightening.

If European companies "can't get the exemptions from the US, Iran is not going to get any of the benefits of the deal", he said. Whilst the sanctions are effective immediately, there is a wind-down period of 90- or 180-days to allow firms to exit any existing agreements they have with Iran.

Yes, some limits do end and down the road, Iran can expand its peaceful nuclear activities. "On the other hand, Japan can say, 'We are a market for you and we've signed a Japan/US energy partnership and we're about developing markets, not cutting them off".

That credit is negated, however, by Trump's unjustifiable and reckless decision to renounce the Iran nuclear deal.

It is clear that a "better" deal is not necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

The Koreans, possibly taking their cue from the Chinese, also seem keen to ply Trump with flattery.

In addition, OFAC announced that it would be revoking two General Licenses issued pursuant to the JCPOA: General License H, which permitted foreign subsidiaries of US companies to engage in certain business activities with Iran, and General License I, which permitted USA persons to enter into contingent contracts for activities permitted under the JCPOA. After screwing allies and partners by abandoning this agreement, Trump will not get global support for sanctions this time around. Indian demand for Iranian crude is rising steeply as both Indian state-owned and private refiners are buying more, due to Iran offering freight discounts. The Treasury Department said on Tuesday that sanctions targeting Iran's oil trade and energy industry will come with a six-month lag. "And I think what we've seen is that Iran's economic condition is really quite shaky, so that the effect here could be dramatic", he said. "That would have wide-reaching consequences, not in the least question marks in Saudi Arabia and Israel on the degree to which they can risk continuing putting most of their eggs in Washington's basket".

Looming over the United States enforcement process will be Iran's response.

If Iran does go down that road, it is unlikely that Tehran will dash to a bomb.

According to presidential sources, Erdogan and Putin agreed that the USA decision on the nuclear deal is "wrong" and pointed out that the nuclear deal was a diplomatic success that should be protected.

Israel responded by targeting several other Syrian and suspected Iranian military positions with up to 70 missiles, half of which were intercepted, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

But with expectations of U.S. sanctions, some refiners started to buy more Iraqi and Saudi barrels for June, in case Iran's exports are immediately impacted.

"If you add to this cocktail wars and tensions in the Middle East and the United States withdrawal from the nuclear deal with all its political, economic and energy consequences, the most likely trend is upward". But President Trump also understands that North Korea has exhibited a wide range of unacceptable behavior, and its weapons of mass destruction programs pose an immediate danger to America and our allies. Today's action sends a critical message.

He believes that this decision was of course not unexpected.

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