Crude oil prices to trade sideways today: Angel Commodities

Crude oil prices to trade sideways today: Angel Commodities

Crude oil prices to trade sideways today: Angel Commodities

In the CNN interview, Bolton did not respond directly when asked whether Trump might seek "regime change" in Iran, or whether the US military would be ordered to make a pre-emptive strike against any Iranian nuclear facility.

Smith said it was unclear whether Trump would actually impose sanctions on European Union companies that continue to deal with Iran, adding that the threat may be strategic, and that the administration could eventually end up granting exemptions. He says in an address to the nation that he will be reinstituting the highest level of sanctions and warning any country not to help the Iranian government.

While I believe that oil, given the vast supplies available around the world, has an economic value of about $20 per barrel, it's becoming increasingly impossible to ignore a world that seems to want higher prices for crude.

At the same time the OPEC oil cartel and other oil producing countries - notably Russian Federation - have agreed to restrict production to boost prices.

Should Trump pull the United States out of a multi-nation agreement on Tehran's nuclear program, Iranian crude exports could be hit, adding to tightness in the oil market, which is coming back into balance after years of glut.

Trump telegraphed the move, and oil prices shot up in recent weeks as traders anticipated it.

On Monday, U.S. crude reached $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014. The 10-year Treasury note yield rose to a two-week high above the 3 percent threshold before pulling back a little to 2.996 percent US10YT=RR. The typical family will spend about $200 more this summer driving season, according to the Oil Price Information Service.

The price of gas is nowhere near $4 a gallon like in 2008 or even $3.50 in 2014.

No one knows exactly how high prices will go.

The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran deal has upset Washington's European allies, cast uncertainty over global oil supplies and raised the risk of conflict in the Middle East.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia indicated it was ready to act.

Even without disruption to Iran's crude flows, the balance between supply and demand in the oil market has been tightening steadily, especially in Asia, with top exporter Saudi Arabia and No.1 producer Russian Federation having led efforts since 2017 to cap output to prop up prices.

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On Wednesday, a Saudi energy official indicated Riyadh might raise output to offset any supply shortage. Recognizing the risk here, a source told the FT on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia would not increase supply on its own, and would instead work with OPEC and Russian Federation to coordinate their action.

National Australia Bank's strategist Ray Attrill said in a commentary: "It's early days in terms of how the decision will play out in terms of heightened geopolitical stress in the Middle East".

French ambassador Kareen Rispal, whose country takes over the G7 presidency from Canada next year, said the group would overcome its obstacles.

Despite that, the geopolitical risk premium in oil has driven crude prices to almost four-year highs and shows no signs of abating.

There may be certain members of OPEC acting as "tools" for a US government looking to capitalize on shale oil momentum, Iran's oil minister said. So, although the deal removed major legal barriers to trade with Iran, many businesses were waiting for the outcome of the United States elections before approaching the Iranian market. Iran was allowed to export oil under its 2015 nuclear pact with the USA and European nations.

Carl Bildt, the former leader of Sweden who is now co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, highlighted that the sanctions would have the biggest impact beyond America's borders. That figure rises to less than 500,000 barrels per day after six months.

The hike in oil prices boosted regional energy firms, with CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec all up nearly two percent in Hong Kong, while Inpex added a similar amount in Tokyo.

Other major producers could fill the hole left by Iran.

Saudi Arabia is also more aggressively confronting Iran on multiple fronts under the directives of King Salman's son and heir, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has consolidated power in the kingdom. Also, if Iran follows with an all-out revival of its nuclear program, Saudi Arabia has threatened to launch a nuclear weapons program of its own in response.

The United States may be able to compensate as well. The bank also lifted its average Brent forecast to $70 for this year and $75 in 2019.

"It's quite possible that surging U.S. shale production could easily fill the gap left by Iran", Eberhart said.

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